How does HublerX define a demand spike — what triggers the alert?

The spike threshold is configured per SKU or SKU group in HublerX — for example, orders exceeding 150% of the 7-day rolling average within a 24-hour window. Thresholds can be set tighter for high-velocity SKUs and looser for slow movers. Where a known promotion is pre-registered, HublerX can distinguish between a planned uplift and an unplanned spike.

Can HublerX help with allocation when there isn't enough supply to meet the full spike?

Yes. Where the spike cannot be fully met within the delivery window, HublerX surfaces the available stock and production output and helps the commercial team allocate across customers — by customer tier, by order date, by region, or by custom priority rules. The allocation is communicated to affected customers from HublerX, with the confirmed quantity and revised delivery date.

Does HublerX connect to co-manufacturers or contract packers as a response option?

HublerX can surface co-manufacturer capacity as a response option where the co-manufacturer is configured as an alternate production source. The capacity, lead time, and minimum order quantity for each co-manufacturer are held in HublerX. The actual engagement with the co-manufacturer is handled by the procurement or operations team; HublerX surfaces it as an option with the relevant details.

What if the spike is for a seasonal or promotional SKU that was already in the demand plan?

HublerX distinguishes between planned demand uplift — pre-registered promotions, seasonal peaks in the forecast — and unplanned spikes. For planned uplifts, the production and material plan is already aligned; HublerX monitors execution against the plan. For unplanned spikes that exceed the planned uplift, the delta is flagged and the response workflow activates.

Demand Spike Response Planning

The Problem

Sales jumped 3x overnight. The production plan was built for normal demand. Nobody knows what to do first.

Demand spikes in FMCG are sudden and compressing — a product goes viral on social media, a major retailer runs an unannounced promotion, or a heat wave triggers a run on a category. Within 24–48 hours, distributor orders are 2–3x the normal rate and the production plan — built for forecasted demand — is already wrong. The question is not whether to respond; it is how to respond, in what order, and what to prioritise when the capacity and material to meet every order simply isn't there.

Most operations answer that question slowly. The sales team escalates to the commercial director. The commercial director calls the plant manager. The plant manager calls the production planner and the procurement lead. By the time the response is coordinated — which SKUs to prioritise, which customers to fulfil first, what can be sourced and in what timeframe — 12–24 hours have passed and shelf-level stock has already dropped. The spike that was an opportunity has become a service failure.

Current Workaround

What most operations do today: Most operations today: the spike surfaces in the order management system as a sudden volume surge. The sales coordinator flags it to the commercial team. The commercial team escalates by phone and WhatsApp. The production planner runs a manual stock and capacity check — in the ERP, across a spreadsheet, and by calling the warehouse. The procurement lead checks material availability by calling suppliers. This manual coordination loop takes 4–8 hours before a response plan exists. By that point, the first distributors are already calling to chase orders the operation cannot yet confirm.

The HublerX Approach

A demand spike has a computable impact — the delta between current orders and the production plan can be calculated the moment it appears, and the material, capacity, and fulfilment implications can be mapped immediately. HublerX monitors the order book continuously and detects spike signals — order volume crossing configurable thresholds by SKU, customer, or region — and maps the full supply response picture the moment the spike is confirmed. The commercial, planning, and procurement teams see the impact and the options simultaneously, not sequentially.

How It Looks in HublerX

Live workflow view

Demand Spike Response Board

2 active spike events

SPIKE DETECTED1

RESPONSE PLANNING2

Marie Light 100g — 2.2x normal demandOrders: 28,800 units · Plan: 13,200 units · Gap: 15,600 unitsOptions being evaluatedHighMaterial covered · Capacity gap 1 shift · Overtime being confirmed

Glucose Biscuits 200g — 1.9x normal demandOrders: 22,400 units · Plan: 12,000 units · Gap: 10,400 unitsOptions evaluatedMediumWeekend shift proposed · Material confirmed · Customer allocation draft ready

PLAN CONFIRMED1

Digestive Biscuits 200g — spike resolvedAdditional 18,000 units · Co-mfr confirmed · Material sourcedPlan confirmedCo-manufacturer Bakeman Foods · Delivery Thursday · Customers notified

EXECUTING2

Butter Cookies 200g — spike managedExtra shift added · 14,400 units additional · On trackExecutingSaturday shift confirmed · All customers allocated · Delivery Sunday–Monday

Oat Cookies 150g — partial fulfilmentAvailable: 9,600 units · Orders: 14,400 units · ProratedPartial · AllocatedCustomers notified · Next batch Wednesday · Material expedited

How HublerX Coordinates It

The step-by-step sequence

1
Demand spike detected
HublerX monitors confirmed order volume by SKU and region against the rolling forecast. When order volume crosses the configured spike threshold — for example, 150% of the 7-day average for a SKU within a 24-hour window — the spike is flagged automatically. The alert includes the SKU, the volume delta, the affected customers, and the current production plan coverage.
On threshold breach · real time
2
Production gap mapped
HublerX calculates the additional production required to meet spiked demand — across all affected SKUs — and compares it against the current production plan and available capacity. The gap between confirmed orders and planned production output is visible immediately: which SKUs are short, by how many units, and in which fulfilment window.
On spike detection · immediate
3
Material availability checked
HublerX checks the raw material and packaging availability for the additional production required. Where current stock and inbound POs can cover the spike, materials are flagged as available. Where there is a gap, the shortfall is identified by material, quantity, and lead time — with the earliest possible production start given material constraints.
Simultaneously with production gap
4
Response options surfaced
HublerX surfaces the available response options: add production capacity (overtime, weekend shift, co-manufacturer), expedite material procurement, reallocate existing stock across customers, defer lower-priority SKUs to free capacity, or partially fulfil with prorated allocation. Each option is shown with its feasibility, lead time, and customer impact.
On impact mapping completion
5
Commercial, planning, and procurement aligned
Commercial, production planning, and procurement receive the spike impact and response options simultaneously. The commercial team confirms customer prioritisation. The planner confirms capacity actions. The procurement lead confirms material expedites. All three functions act on the same picture at the same time — no sequential escalation chain.
On response option confirmation
6
Revised plan executed and communicated
Once the response is agreed, HublerX updates the production plan with the additional work orders, revised priorities, and new material requirements. Customers are proactively informed of confirmed delivery quantities and timelines — including any that will receive partial fulfilment. The revised plan is live in the system, not in a spreadsheet.
On plan confirmation